Troy Weldy’s Proposal for Ooms Conservation Area

Having read the Troy’s proposal regarding Ooms:

I have some concerns:

  • A serpentine boardwalk circling the pond that will allow visitors to access the water safely without disturbing the ecosystem

Sounds like this would completely destroy the gorgeous view of the pond and its inherent natural beauty by surrounding it with a manmade boardwalk.

  • Plantings that support wildlife habitat and provide shade for visitors

I’m not sure how wildlife would be attracted to “plantings” that are in close proximity to people.

  • Pathways that are welcoming to all regardless of ability and supportive of different levels of stamina

I have wondered in the past regarding how Ooms can be more handicap accessible — given the hilly nature of Ooms and the marshy quality near the parking lot, that seems rather difficult.

  • Additional fishing structures and piers that will increase access to the pond

Again, disruptive to the natural beauty of the pond.

  • Rock block stepping stones into the water with water level markers showcasing the impact of climate change on our water ecosystems

Again, disruptive to the natural beauty of the pond.  Furthermore, I’m not clear how climate change is affecting this ecosystem and how water level markers would actually demonstrate climate change.

  • New picnic areas, play equipment for children and families, and rest spaces along the walkways

Play equipment tends to be ugly.  Both play equipment and picnic areas are places where people don’t pick up their litter.  Not to be overly negative, but historically, playground / picnic area attracts nighttime drug activity.  Regarding litter, I almost always take a trash bag with me and pick up the trash I find at the current gazebo at the top of the hill (including the occasional used condom.)  I think this demonstrates the issue.

  • Educational signage highlighting the site’s special features

Personally, I don’t go to Ooms to read signage.  I can read about Ooms on the web.  That said, if the signage were limited to the parking lot, rather than being disruptive on the trails, that would be great.

Is Emerson’s Self-Reliance a Cosmic Joke on the Rest of us?

Really. Is Emerson not laughing in his grave?

Emerson begins (thereabouts) with:

A man should learn to detect and watch that gleam of light which flashes across his mind from within, more than the lustre of the firmament of bards and sages. Yet he dismisses without notice his thought, because it is his. In every work of genius we recognize our own rejected thoughts: they come back to us with a certain alienated majesty. Great works of art have no more affecting lesson for us than this. They teach us to abide by our spontaneous impression with good-humored inflexibility then most when the whole cry of voices is on the other side. Else, to-morrow a stranger will say with masterly good sense precisely what we have thought and felt all the time, and we shall be forced to take with shame our own opinion from another.

And yet, here we are, in some circles quoting Emerson the bard, Emerson the sage, and do we not feel shame in taking our opinion from him rather than our own genius? He must be laughing in his grave.

Who actually has the time to wade through all this eloquence? How, if it all, does it apply to our world, 180 years later, where social media, news media, politicians, doctors, scientists — the entire plethora of so-called “experts” — is constant bombarding us with “this is how and what you should think.” Where 180 years have gone by and scientific, medical, social and economic advancement has occurred because thinking has been built upon other thinking rather than each person going off on their own direction willy-nilly and progressing no further than the threshold of their own personal cave.

Emerson concludes with:

He who knows that power is inborn, that he is weak because he has looked for good out of him and elsewhere, and so perceiving, throws himself unhesitatingly on his thought, instantly rights himself, stands in the erect position, commands his limbs, works miracles; just as a man who stands on his feet is stronger than a man who stands on his head.

As John of Salisbury wrote almost 1000 (yes, one thousand!!!) years ago (in 1159): “Bernard of Chartres used to compare us to dwarfs perched on the shoulders of giants.” The phrase “standing on the shoulders of giants” has become a metaphor which means “Using the understanding gained by major thinkers who have gone before in order to make intellectual progress.” (wikipedia)

No, my dear Emerson, not our feet, not our head, but rather standing on the shoulder of giants.

So, if you read Emerson’s Self-Reliance, read it with the idea that, if you think he was a giant, you are standing on his shoulders and will make your own moral and intellectual progress. Just try not to be so long-winded about it.

Why I am Against NY Bill A11179

Read the bill here.

Why I am against the bill:

The statement “IF PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS DETERMINE THAT RESIDENTS OF THE STATE ARE NOT DEVELOPING SUFFICIENT IMMUNITY FROM COVID-19” is subject to a wide range of interpretation as to what “sufficient immunity” means in terms of the percentage of the population, neither does it specify how “sufficient immunity” is determined. Is the determination based on the percent of people vaccinated? Is it determined by testing antibody levels for both vaccinated and non-vaccinated but COVID-19 exposed population? It is also questionable as to whether “public health officials” have the training and qualifications to make this determination. This bill also does not take into account lifestyle variances in the population group (for example, health care worker vs. someone working from home), including considerations such as the amount of contact with other people and risk of becoming infected or infecting others.

Furthermore, in the 1905 case Jacobson v. Massachusetts, where in the opinion, Justice John Marshall Harlan explained that personal liberties might be suspended in cases where the interest of the “common good” of the community are of paramount importance. By contrast, this bill does not address whether the criteria for determining “the common good” has been met and what that criteria is.

It appears that this bill is in direct violation of prior law and instead attempts to mandate vaccination without evidence of a “common good” and without adequately specifying what “sufficient immunity” means, both in terms of a percentage of the population and by how immunity is determined. Instead, the decision for enforcement, should this bill become law, is arbitrarily determined by a group of people whose credentials stated simply as “public health officials”, is in my opinion, questionable.

A COVID Fairy Tale

It is difficult to know where to begin.  It is difficult because there is no defined place of beginning and there is no defined ending.  How can there be a beginning without an ending or at least a place of resting?  It is difficult because any past point of beginning lives in deception and misplaced trust and misguided faith and disempowerment.  One cannot begin in the present because the present lives in pain and discomfort and confusion and division and longing.  One cannot begin in the future because the path of transformation into acceptance and embracing and community and owning and healing is un-walked, unknown, and unseen.  One can only begin by acknowledging: there is no beginning.

Once upon a time, now lost to antiquity, there was faith.  Great teachers lived amongst us and their teachings comforted us during the daily material struggles of our lives, comforted us that these struggles were but a shadow, created by us and cast upon us, hiding the brilliance of the spiritual worlds.  Life, while hard and painful and often tragic and, dare we say, brutal, particularly the brutality of man against man, there was one thing that no one could take from us – our faith that we could step out of the shadow if we only knew how, and if we did not know how, then at least death would be the ultimate step out of that shadow.

Even then, there were some that questioned faith and strove to convince us that our faith was a deception, a lie.  As they gathered followers, their strength grew, and they spoke words that appeared wise, but when the dark descended at night upon the followers, there was an emptiness, an emptiness that asked: “But if not faith, then where do we find the meaning?”  The emptiness demanded an answer, the more it asked, the more the answer compelled the followers to seek an answer.  Some were content with the answer “there is no meaning”, “there is no grand purpose”, “there is nothing.”  Others took up the question and created a new faith, one rooted in that which could be tangibly experienced.

The followers of the senses became our new teachers.  The teachings of old were put on shelves to gather dust as examples of ignorance, to shame those still of faith.  Faith was replaced by material measure, form, and predictability.  This was a powerful lure, as the material world is measurable, is of physical form, is predictable in its physics and chemistry.  Even those of us that still maintained a faith in the spiritual world, immeasurable, formless, creative and unpredictable, accepted the teachings of science – how could we not, as there is indeed a truth, however lifeless and deadening, of the science of the material world.  We lived for a time in that duality of spiritual faith and material science.  But the lure of science, the promise that our worldly suffering could be eased by this new thing called “knowledge”, cracked and cleaved at our faith, it clamored for recognition, it crashed upon the last vestige of our souls, and it wreaked havoc on the one thing that was at one time impermeable – our faith in ourselves as our own guides through life.

So many of us now yearned for “a better life” through the knowledge of science.  Those great teachers of the material world saw that yearning, even felt it in themselves.  They grasped that yearning and wielded it with a new power, the power of promise.  Our children began to go to schools that promised them that knowledge of material world would increase their wealth and ease their suffering, that the world of our children would be a richer, more fruitful, more vibrant, more connected, more unique, more individual, more free than the life of our world, their parent’s.  And oh, we so wanted this for our children as well!

But that promise was a deception, the worst kind of deception, the kind of deception that the teacher believes in with such faith (oh sweet irony) such that the children believe in that deception without question.  Many great works were created, some which caused destruction on scales never seen before, some which cured injuries and illnesses that would have maimed for life or even brought life to a premature end.  And these great works continued, allowing our children to converse with their friends as if they were in the same room, to travel great distances in comfort and rapidity, to grow food in unimaginable quantities.  Death in childbearing, a once real and terrifying prospect, became a rare occurrence. 

But that promise was a deception.  Our world became polluted, our food lost their health-giving vibrance, our wars became more devastating, our inequalities grew to despairing proportions.  And the promise of individuality and freedom turned into the reality of uniformity, compliance, complacency, and servitude to the ever-increasing complexity of our self-made materialism.  Individuality was sold as “personalize your world by choosing from one of these three colors.”  Our connection with what is natural and beautiful was replaced with what is virtual and unreal.  Connection itself became a momentary vacuous sensation of an anonymous “like” or two-hundred-and-forty character constraining “tweet” of self-expression.  We were given unnatural medicines to help us cope in a chaotic world, suppress our dismay and depression of what we saw becoming around us.  Our suffering was not cured, it was masked.

We became powerless in a world that promised empowerment.  As the material sciences grew in complexity, we were taught to have faith (oh sweet irony) in our teachers and their teachings.  We were taught that we could not understand the vastly complex world we lived in.  Only those with enormous financial resources could even take the journey of higher education, and when they became highly educated, they became the next generation of self-deceived teachers.  We were taught we could not think for ourselves; we could not trust ourselves.  Oh, no teacher would dare say that directly because that would have awoken at least some of us.  But that was the ultimate lesson, hidden in the teaching that “the world is too complex for you to understand.”  We could not think for ourselves.  We could not trust ourselves.  We must let those that know better than us tell us how to live, how to love, how to work, how to consume, how to die.  The transformation of our faith in the living creative Word was complete – we now only had faith in the those that knew better than us.

Where did that path take us?  I will tell you.  A disease of our own making, through ignorance and corruption, has overtaken the world.  We are at dis-ease with each other to such a degree that we no longer touch and embrace each other in friendship and love.  We live with the question “Do you have the disease?  Will you give it to me?  Will you be the one to kill me?”  Worse, the person who is a stranger, who is our friend, who is our companion, who is our lover, silently asks us, “Will you be the person to kill me?”  We feel that question being silently asked every time we see each other.  We reject each other, and in that rejection, we create fear and division.  We no longer say “Yes!”; instead we say “No!” in our every gesture and often in our words.  We cover our most expressive part of our body, our face, with a mask.  We mask our emotions, our caring, our touching smile, our frowning question, our frustrated thin-lipped pursing, our embracing whole-hearted open-mouthed laugh, with an emotionless mask that says “I fear you and you should fear me.”  Those that refuse to wear a mask, we shame and even murder, or we murder those that question our not wearing a mask.  Everyone is our enemy; everyone is at war with everyone else.  We feel powerless because we have been taught that we are incapable of thinking for ourselves, we are incapable of trusting ourselves, we can only trust in the teachers. 

Our future is not yet known.  There are some of us that are waking up, questioning the trust in our teachers and leaders.  Asking the question “How can I take ownership and responsibility for my own body?”  Asking the question: “Where can I find real education on nutrition and lifestyle and creative modalities that will help my body defend itself?”  Asking the question: “How can I find real medicines that won’t do more harm than the disease itself?”  Asking the question: “Why isn’t this being talked about in the news, but instead I am being told the daily death counts?”  Asking the question: “Why should I trust those for the solution to the problem that they have in fact brought upon us?”  Asking the question: “Why am I being locked in my house?”  Asking the question: “How can I become my own teacher, empowering myself to heal myself and others rather than become sick and create sickness in others?” 

Our future is not yet known, but we do know one thing: the fear, rejection, feeling like and being treated like a leper, the divisiveness, division, the “No!”, must be transformed.  We must learn how to see and hear and accept each other even though our relationship to the world is uniquely individual.  We must learn to hold those multiple views simultaneously rather than succumbing to “this view is the only right view.”   We must learn to trust ourselves, teach ourselves, take responsibility for ourselves and our own selves, and above all, we must ask questions.  If we can do that, the future can be walked, can be known, and we can see ourselves in a better place that we can carry with us for the rest of our lives.

The Power of No

I was reminded of this recent event reading 5 Project Management Skills Every Developer Should Have.

My coworker (I’ll use “C” for their name) and I were recently asked by the project manager (for context, he was a very new hire, but that doesn’t imply he was new to the field of project management) assigned to our project, “Can you and C put due dates on all of the tasks for this project?”

My one line answer. “No”

The silence was deafening.

After the pregnant silence gave birth, the obvious question “Why not???” was asked.

Well, because:

  1. Our daily activities include a variety of other unpredictable tasks that are constantly shifting in priority (aside – such is the life in a small company. Isn’t that the definition of Agile? Laugh)
  2. We are working with undocumented verbal specifications where new information is provided every week in the weekly meeting with the client and often previous requirements change slightly. (aside – we’re an Agile team, right?)
  3. The nature of the work requires interfacing with third party API’s that are finicky and difficult to map their data responses into something we understand how to map to our fields. (aside – everyone is Agile nowadays, right?)
  4. Your own (the client’s) dataset doesn’t have all the information we need and we’re waiting for you to update your datasets. (aside – are THEY Agile???)
  5. To put a due date on something, yes, we can estimate the number of hours, on average, per day that we can work on the project, but a due date means figuring out how many hours the task will take, and we’re dealing with some unknowns that make that impossible at the moment. (Agile!) Once we have removed those unknowns, it may become possible to predict the hours.

Of course, the senior project manager started off the whole conversation with the typical Dilbert-esque management speak: “I am here to facilitate — if you need something from the client, let me know and I’ll make it happen.” I’ve been around the block enough times to know what utter BS that is.

So the manager decided that what his male ego needed was a daily 30 minute conference call with moi and C to review, each and every day (except weekends) the status of each ticket. Riiiight. So we complained to our direct manager, who “managed” – managed to get that stopped. I mean really, the guy can just look at the ticket to see the status, right?

The irony is that this project manager went from being a bull in a China shop to a mouse – no facilitation, no responses to our emails when we actually need some information from the client that he could “facilitate”, in fact, no communication at all except an hour before the scheduled weekly meetings “Are you guys ready?”

It’s amazing, the Power of No (apologies to Eckhart Tolle)

COVID is Becoming a Runaway Train

Putting a variety of things together, it seems like COVID is becoming a runaway train in many states.  We have:

  1. Increasing # of positive cases and infection rates
  2. Hospitals are starting the hit capacity
  3. The increased # of positive cases is making contact tracing harder and harder
  4. Testing is becoming delayed, now 2 to 5 day turnaround
  5. The test delays make contact tracing all but useless

That is a witch’s brew of disaster.

Lockdown and “Stay at Home” Doesn’t Work. Testing Works

All graphs are from Novel Coronavirus (COVIS-19) Infection Map as of March 28 2020.

South Korea

SouthKorea

As indicated by the 2 purple circles I’ve drawn on the graph:

  • On Feb 21, South Korea reported an 143 active cases.
  • On March 11, the peak of the active cases was 7869, which is where the yellow line starts sloping down.

In 19 days (less than 3 weeks) the rate of infections began decreasing.

Regarding South Korea, the following bullet points are all quotes from a 3/13/2020 article on Forbes:

  • South Korea Sees Coronavirus Slowdown—Without A Lockdown, But With Nearly 250,000 Tests
  • Seo Eun-young, the director of foreign press relations in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said aggressive testing has been the key to containing the coronavirus.
  • Unlike other countries—like the United States, where only people showing symptoms are recommended to be tested—South Korea tests anyone who had been in contact with a confirmed case, and tracks down by credit card activity, surveillance camera footage and mobile phone tracking those who are potentially exposed, a measure that has proved effective but has raised questions about privacy.
  •  The U.S. has reportedly tested fewer than 14,000 people, a statistic Director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases Anthony Fauci told congress was “a failing” on Thursday. In contrast, South Korea has reported they have the capacity to test 15,000 patients per day.

Hubei China

Hubei China

  • Jan 27, 1302 active cases
  • Feb 18, the peak of the active cases was 50620, which is where the yellow line starts sloping down.

A time span of three weeks and one day (22 days).

Italy

Italy

  • Feb 29, 1049 active cases
  • March 27, 66414 active cases

A time span of 4 weeks with no sign of the daily number of new active cases decreasing.

  • Italy has been in lockdown for 3 weeks now.

When I look at these graphs, the conclusion I draw is that a blanket lockdown does not work.  What does work is:

  1. extensive testing
  2. quarantining if infected
  3. tracking and testing the people with which the infected person has been in contact

New York

New York

  • March 18, 1635 active cases
  • March 27, 44116 active cases

If we look at the active confirmed reports for New York:

  • March 23: 20718
  • March 24: 25455 (an increase of 4737 from the day before)
  • March 25: 30526 (an increase of 5081 from the day before)
  • March 26: 36873 (an increase of 6347 from the day before)
  • March 27: 44116 (an increase of 7243 from the day before)

New York has been under a “stay at home” order for 13 days now (initiated at 8 PM on March 15).  The rate of new cases daily continues to increase.  “Stay at home” isn’t working.  If we were to achieve what South Korea and Hubei achieved, reversing the increase in daily new infections in 3 weeks, we should start seeing this curve decreases, well, about now, as we have one week left to go since the stay at home order at which point there would be somewhere around 100,000 active cases.  I seriously doubt this will be the case.

Why doesn’t lockdown and “stay at home” work?  My personal opinion is:

  1. I suspect this relates to “essential businesses” that must stay open.  This doesn’t just include hospitals, walk in clinics, pharmacies, gas stations, grocery stores, etc.  This includes the entire healthcare, production and delivery system for the goods and medicines that these essential businesses require.  We have to eat, people have to feed their pets, take their medications, go the the hospital, be treated, etc.
  2. Many people don’t know they are infected as they are asymptomatic but continue to spread the disease to others.
  3. Support staff required to keep these essential businesses open and the supply chain “supplying”: drivers, packers, distribution centers, administrative workers that must be on site, etc.

March 26:

Many COVID-19 cases are thought to be mild, and infected individuals with mild or no reported symptoms are still contagious and capable of spreading the virus. Plus, the virus has a long incubation period, with many people not showing symptoms for an average of five days after infection. Together, these two factors result in a lot of people who are infected and spreading the virus without knowing it….In a study published in the journal Science earlier this month, Shaman and his colleagues found that undocumented COVID-19 cases were responsible for 86 percent of the spread of the disease in China before the country enacted travel restrictions on January 23, 2020…“The fact that there may be some silent transmission for COVID-19 makes it very difficult to contain,” says Meyers. That’s why people worldwide are now taking such extreme social distancing measures to try to get the outbreak under control.  ssource

And yet South Korea did contain the outbreak.  Through testing.

Again, regarding testing:

March 13:

Despite the fact that last week, Vice President Mike Pence promised that “roughly 1.5 million tests” would soon be available, an ongoing Atlantic investigation can confirm only that 13,953 tests have been conducted nationally. New York, which has shut down Broadway and has at least 328 coronavirus cases, is still failing to test patients who have worrying symptoms. source

March 20:

Los Angeles County health officials advised doctors to give up on testing patients in the hope of containing the coronavirus outbreak, instructing them to test patients only if a positive result could change how they would be treated.  The guidance, sent by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health to doctors on Thursday, was prompted by a crush of patients and shortage of tests, and could make it difficult to ever know precisely how many people in L.A. County contracted the virus. – source

March 21:

New York City health officials have directed medical providers to stop testing patients for the coronavirus, except for those sick enough to require hospitalization, saying wider testing is exhausting supplies of protective equipment.  In an advisory issued Friday, the health department said outpatient testing should stop unless results would impact a patient’s treatment.  It said demand for unnecessary testing is contributing to a national shortage of masks, gowns, collection swabs and other supplies, all of which need to be discarded by health care workers after each test.  As of Friday morning, more than 32,000 people had been tested in the state, almost a third of them in the last day, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.  More than 7,000 New Yorkers have tested positive. More than 1,200 have been hospitalized.source

Contrast that to South Korea’s capacity to test 15000 people per day.  Again, why testing is important:

Testing allows infected people to know that they are infected. This can help them receive the care they need; and it can help them take measures to reduce the probability of infecting others. People who don’t know they are infected might not stay at home and thereby risk infecting others. source

Also, points to note regarding Coronavirus disease 2019 (this is from wikipedia) and why testing is so important:

  • Details about how the disease is spread are still being determined.
  • The virus can remain infectious for hours to days on surfaces.  Specifically the virus was infectious for up to three days on plastic and stainless steel, for one day on cardboard, and for up to four hours on copper.  This however varies based on the humidity and temperature.
  • One study found that small droplets with coronavirus, generated by laboratory equipment, could stay airborne for three hours.

Personal comment: Have you handled money recently?

We need to start testing!

Other reading:

How prepared is the US to respond to COVID-19 relative to other countries?

What WHO advisor David Heymann told us about COVID-19